by Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
We don't yet have a complete precinct canvass for the June 6th special election in California, but here are the top line numbers.
- In 2004, George W. Bush earned 55.7% of the two-party vote in CA-50. John Kerry earned 44.3%.
- In 2006, Brian Bilbray earned 52.4% of the two-party vote against Francine Busby (who earned 47.6%).
This represents progress on two fronts. Busby was able to convert the 6-7% of the public that voted for a President Kerry but a Republican Congressman (Duke Cunningham won his district with almost 60% of the vote) into Democratic votes further down the ticket. In addition, she was able to swing another 1-3% of swing voters. If that happens across the country, the 18 Republicans who hold districts that John Kerry won at the Presidential level are in all in serious trouble. Still, that's small a consolation award for the evening.Herman Edwards is right; the prize for coming in second isn't a set of steak knives, let alone a company car. The odds were tough, but it's a shame Democrats couldn't come through for once.
Wishcasting that turnout should have been higher is really asking for too much. You might as well ask for that pony while you're at it. In a contested Democratic primary, no Democratic candidate for Governor is going to expend resources trying to turn out voters in suburban San Diego, for crying out loud. Especially in California, where it costs obscene amounts of money to compete, and you're better off putting your GOTV resources into Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Alameda counties. Perhaps the negative tone turned off some casual voters, but in CA-50 turnout was high by historical norms. At the top of the ticket, Angelides and Westley combined to defeat Ahhnold by a 4:3 margin.
It was good to see Tester win in Big Sky country. Democratic ballots outnumbered Republican ones by over 10,000, so if JT can hold onto most of the Morrison voters and pick up some of the Keenan supporters, he'll be in good shape in November.
