Daniel Drezner extracts a nice set of lessons that Passover teaches us about international relations. But one of them simply isn't true:2) Sanctions against an autocratic regime will rarely yield significant concessions. To get the Pharaoh to let the Jews go, God imposes an escalating series of sanctions against Egypt. These sanctions crippled Egyptian agriculture, health, sanitation and, er, sunlight, inflicting great suffering against the Egyptian people. Not until the first-born male children are killed, however, does Pharaoh relent for a sufficiently long time for the Egyptians to make their escape. Not coincidentally, that plague is the only one to truly hurt the autocrat personally, as his son was killed in the plague as well. Compellence strategies would seem to have a greater chance of success if they target autocratic elites.Oddly, this came up at my Seder last night as well. The key here, however, is that God manipulates Pharaoh into a posture of relentless obstructionism. In Exodus 4:21, God previews the strategy, telling Moses, "When you return to Egypt, see that you perform before Pharaoh all the wonders I have given you the power to do. But I will harden his heart so that he will not let the people go." In Exodus 10, the locusts descend, tearing through Egyptian crops and darkening the skies. Pharaoh, terrified, summons Moses and begs his compassion. "I have sinned against the Lord your God, and against you. Do forgive my sin just this once, and pray to the Lord your God that at the least he remove this deadly thing from me." God removes the locusts, but then, again, "the Lord hardened Pharaoh’s heart, and he would not let the Israelites go."And it basically goes on like this. In Exodus 11, we learn that "Moses and Aaron performed all these wonders [plagues] before Pharaoh; but the Lord hardened Pharaoh’s heart, and he did not let the people of Israel go out of his land." This sets up the killing of the firstborn. After the slaughter of Egypt's young, a cowed Pharaoh lets the Israelites leave. But God again hardens Pharaoh's heart so his army pursues the Jews and is crushed beneath the sea. God is pretty explicit about this, telling Moses, "And I will harden Pharaoh's heart, and he will pursue them. But I will gain glory for myself through Pharaoh and all his army, and the Egyptians will know that I am the LORD."Which is all to say that unless God is hardening Khamenei's heart, I don't think Exodus provides good evidence that sanctions won't yield concessions. To the contrary, in fact. Dropping some locusts on Iranian fields should pretty much shut their nuclear program down for good. Unless, of course, there's a more powerful outside patron -- China? Russia? -- hardening Iranian resistance.(Dan acknowledges God's role in Egyptian intransigence towards the end of the post, but says it "just makes the story sound like a seven-year old boy playing both sides of a checkers game." But that appears to have been what it was! Wholesale slaughter so the God of the Israelites could demonstrate dominance over the Gods of the Egyptians. It's grisly stuff.)
