Early results show Clinton pulling out a win in Nevada. The interesting demographic tidbits are that she split union members with Obama, and won 64 percent of the Hispanic vote. That last is a big deal, as California, the biggest of the February 5th prizes, has a huge Hispanic electorate. For Obama, this is a significant blow. His campaign is premised off the idea that his message, backstory, and political magnetism will rope new voters into the process. Nevada looked like a fairly good testing ground. It's a Western state that's trending Democratic, that's very diverse, and is a new participant in the primary process (meaning there were, theoretically, more new primary voters for Obama to pull out, and fewer traditional voters for Clinton to rely on). It'll be interesting to read the transcript of Obama's speech tonight, as the "new majority" rhetoric he was relying on in New Hampshire won't exactly fit the moment. As his movement falters, or at least shows itself insufficient without new entrants, he'll presumably have to retool his appeal in a more concrete manner -- without the enthusiasm of momentum, you can't just welcome Americans into your moment, you have to persuade them to be a part of it.
