MSNBC just called Ohio for Clinton. On the one hand, this is a big win for her, as Ohio has an almost talismanic place in the Democratic psyche. She who can win Ohio can win the election. But the trends in Ohio weren't that promising for her. She held a powerful lead there...until Barack Obama started campaigning. He wasn't quite able to make up the gap, but the graph below suggests that her bond with Ohioans may not be as strong as her campaign might suggest:
Indeed, Obama's ability to cut her lead in states where he starts campaigning has actually been oddly bad for his press coverage. Rather than losing where there was no expectation that he'd win, his tendency to slice double digit leads into single digit squeakers requires such rapid pre-election momentum that the media begins covering the state as a possible win for him, and then, eventually, an actual loss. It's been good for him insofar as it's done wonders for his delegate count, but bad insofar as nights that actually demonstrate his electoral abilities end up getting spun as defeats. It's a bit odd for the proof of Clinton's political talent to be her close win in a state where she had the governor's endorsement and, as of a week or two ago, a double digit lead.Update; The exits I originally saw suggested a 3 point lead for Clinton. They now look to have been wrong, and her win will be substantially larger than that. Whether it will match her lead in recent weeks remains to be seen
Indeed, Obama's ability to cut her lead in states where he starts campaigning has actually been oddly bad for his press coverage. Rather than losing where there was no expectation that he'd win, his tendency to slice double digit leads into single digit squeakers requires such rapid pre-election momentum that the media begins covering the state as a possible win for him, and then, eventually, an actual loss. It's been good for him insofar as it's done wonders for his delegate count, but bad insofar as nights that actually demonstrate his electoral abilities end up getting spun as defeats. It's a bit odd for the proof of Clinton's political talent to be her close win in a state where she had the governor's endorsement and, as of a week or two ago, a double digit lead.Update; The exits I originally saw suggested a 3 point lead for Clinton. They now look to have been wrong, and her win will be substantially larger than that. Whether it will match her lead in recent weeks remains to be seen 
