Jon Cohn had a nice scoop yesterday, receiving assurances from a "senior administration official" that “health care reform will be included--and indeed a central focus--of the budget." The budget in question is the 2009 budget, and health care's inclusion amounts to a firm commitment to pursue reform this very year. In part, this is an expression of Obama's priorities. But it's also an expression of the realities on Capitol Hill. Cohn rounds these up nicely, as well. "Publicly, Senators Max Baucus and Ted Kennedy, who have been working together to craft health care legislation, sent Obama a letter urging him not to give up the cause," reports Cohn. "Privately, they signed onto another letter--along with Representatives Charles Rangel, George Miller, Pete Stark, and Henry Waxman. That second letter, according to several Capitol Hill sources, urged Obama to include health care in his first budget." There's also the 11 senator working group that's come together to talk strategy and explore compromises, and reports are that Baucus is personally eager to build a bill around his white paper, and do so quickly. The sum impact of this is that the relevant legislators are begging the President to let them pass his health care plan. That's not always been the case with health reform. In 1994, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, then chair of the Senate Finance Committee, was very clear about his preference not to do health care reform. He wanted to put welfare reform first. He appeared on Meet the Press and accused Clinton of using "fantasy numbers." It was a bad scene, and foretold much of what was to come as health reform collapsed in the Congress. But this year, there's no such ambivalence on Capitol Hill. And the eagerness of the relevant legislators is also a statement of their confidence in reform's short-term prospects. Baucus, Kennedy, Waxman, Rangel, and Miller are not known for engaging legislative battles they cannot win. They have been feeling out their colleagues, counting the likely votes. They've concluded that they can pass health care reform. At least, they can pass it if it happens in 2009. Remember what the letter says: Include health care in the first budget. This year. There's a reason why they've put so much emphasis on the timing. If 2009 flips into 2010, if the midterms loom and unexpected challenges sap Obama's capital and credibility, then they're far less certain that they can pass the bill. There's too much uncertainty. Too much electoral interference. Too much risk aversion. Too much potential for failure. Health reform in 2009 is not a statement of moral urgency but a judgment of congressional capacity. And Obama appears to be listening to his chairmen.
