We're halfway through this convention. Not all the way through, nor even near it. And I'm inside the convention, not watching it on television and consequently not sure how most Americans are actually experiencing it. But if I were doing the grading now, I'd fail the thing.What is this convention arguing? What is it arguing about Barack Obama? That he's an American with a recognizable history of growing up in a place and doing some stuff and loving his family? That he doesn't hate Hillary Clinton's supporters? What is it arguing about John McCain? Well, if you're in the arena listening to the speeches that aren't televised, it's arguing that McCain is more of the same, that his policies are cruel and stale and wrong. If you're watching the primetime speeches, it's not saying anything at all about him. What will anyone remember from the first two days of this convention?Granted, we're only halfway through. And voters will remember the end, not the beginning. But the beginning sets up the end, and since they're not building the argument day-by-day, it's going to be much harder to do as much in two days as they could've done in four. In 2004, the Kerry campaign laid out its argument -- which would be sustained through the whole convention -- on the very first evening. Bill Clinton delivered an extraordinary thematic address that set the stage for the rest of the week. It's worth reproducing here: Now, let me tell you know what I know about John Kerry. I've been seeing all of the Republican ads about him. Let me tell you what I know about him.During the Vietnam War, many young men, including the current president, the vice president and me, could have gone to Vietnam and didn't. John Kerry came from a privileged background. He could have avoided going too, but instead, he said: Send me.When they sent those swiftboats up the river in Vietnam and they told them their job was to draw hostile fire, to wave the American flag and bate the enemy to come out and fight, John Kerry said: Send me.And then, on my watch, when it was time to heal the wounds of war and normalize relations with Vietnam and to demand an accounting of the POWs and MIAs we lost there, John Kerry said: Send me.Then when we needed someone to push the cause of inner-city children struggling to avoid a life of crime or to bring the benefits of high technology to ordinary Americans or to clean the environment in a way that created new jobs, or to give small businesses a better chance to make it, John Kerry said: Send me.So tonight, my friends, I ask you to join me for the next 100 days in telling John Kerry's story and promoting his ideas. Let every person in this hall and like-minded people all across our land say to him what he has always said to America: Send me.Say what you will about the 2004 Convention, it had a theme. Conversely, the first night of the 2008 Democratic Convention had Michelle Obama bring the warm and fuzzies, Ted Kennedy calling forth tears and hankies, and Jim Leach speaking quietly and pedantically without any serious promotion from the Obama campaign. The second night of the 2004 Convention saw Barack Obama tearing apart the arena. In 2008, we had Mark Warner with a well-crafted speech that fell flat because it was an attack structure that refused to name the politician it was attacking. You had Hillary Cinton giving a powerful address, but it was an address that was broadly aimed at problems in the Democratic Party, not the problems with the Republican Party.The first two days of the convention were wasted, or seemed so from my vantage point. Tonight, Joe Biden will rip into McCain. And tomorrow, Obama will do whatever he does. Then on Friday, at noon, John McCain will announce his vice presidential nominee, strangling any convention bounce in the crib. Then the Republican Convention will begin, and you can be assured that they will remember Barack Obama's name. They will remember how to make fun of him, how to mock his celebrity and inexperience. And the media will not cover Ron Paul's protesters with the vigor or attention they gave to Hillary Clinton's diehards. Instead, they will cover four days of straight attacks on Barack Obama, culminating with a grave address about sacrifice and service from John McCain. And unless Obama's convention makes a sharp turn tonight and tomorrow, they will have done nothing to soften the impact of these attacks and themes or create a counternarrative for the media to cover.A couple times in the past few days, I've told colleagues and friends that this convention is the most pessimistic I've felt about Obama's chances. I figured I was just being dour. Instead, I was voicing the consensus. That's not how a convention is supposed to make attendees feel. Tonight, we'll see if Joe Biden can change the mood.
