CVN 2020. It's not quite a scoop, but a Korean newspaper reported last week that China is planning to commission a 93,000 ton nuclear powered aircraft carrier by 2020. This is in addition to the 50,000-ish ton conventionally powered aircraft carrier that the PLAN is supposed to have available by 2010. While the latter seems an improbably optimistic date, 2020 for the first Chinese CVN is certainly doable, if they start doing the design work now, recommission the Varyag (an old Ukranian hulk carrier), and commission a conventional carrier sometime around 2012-2014. Having the two smaller carriers available will help the Chinese work through the myriad design and operations problems that a modern supercarrier presents. Still, 2020 is a long time away, and a lot could happen between now and then (domestic unrest, economic retrenchment, a little from column a and b) that could delay the carrier or cancel it entirely.
--Robert Farley
