×
DEBATING THE DEBATE. Brian Beutler, currently residing in Argentina and thus, I think, ineligible to comment on American politics, breaks a host of international treaties and previews tonight's Democratic debate.
My prediction, for what it's worth: Clinton is a punching bag, loses badly, and suffers the only noticeable dip in the polls. Obama says little new, sees little change in his numbers. Richardson makes the biggest absolute gain though not big enough to make him a contender, and Edwards moves closer to second place in the national polls.I'll debate that. I think Clinton will impress in tonight's debate, coming off both more substantive and more appealing than most expect. The question is whether she goes for a Rose Garden strategy or turns her guns on Obama. Edwards will also come out ahead, as he's good at this sort of thing. Richardson will make some noise by using today's Iraq votes to slam the other candidates for opposing full withdrawal. The big question is how negative Obama's willing to go: If he really assaults Clinton and Edwards for supporting the war in the first place, he could make some real waves. If he tries to float above the fray, my guess is he'll underperform expectations -- he's traditionally shined in solo appearances, rather than forums. And, finally, I think this debate will have absolutely no effect on the national polls. What say you folks?--Ezra Klein
