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DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY? Tom Edsall spouts a meme I'm getting a bit tired of:
The head of the pack is a dangerous place for a Democrat to be. Democrats excel in cannibalizing their front-runners. Just ask those who were knocked out in the primary season (Lyndon Johnson, Ed Muskie and Howard Dean) or those who limped from the ring after 15 rounds (Walter Mondale and Al Gore).Republicans, by contrast, honor hierarchy. For four decades the G.O.P. has nominated the early favorite. Unlike Democrats, Republican voters have a long history of rejecting rebels and underdogs.Grr. Alright: To call Howard Dean 2004's frontrunner is to make a mockery of the term. He was a particularly potent insurgent. John Kerry was the early favorite, and he won. In 2000, heir apparent Al Gore didn't lose a single primary. Heir apparent George W. Bush, conversely, was nearly toppled by John McCain. In 1996, Bill Clinton faced no primary challenge, while Bob Dole was weakened by Pat Buchanan's insurgency. In 1992, Mario Cuomo dropped out, so the Democrats lacked an heir apparent. George H.W Bush was primaried by Buchanan. In 1988, sitting vice-president George Bush was beaten in Iowa by both Dole and Pat Robertson, while Democratic frontrunner Gary Hart was knocked out by his own sex scandal. The idea that Democratic primaries are somehow more contentious or unpredictable than their Republican counterparts is a myth that springs from the media's belief that Republicans adore order while Democrats are still chaotic college kids. That it isn't true and can't be backed up by the facts doesn't, I fear, much matter, but should be pointed out anyway.--Ezra Klein
