This morning I attended a briefing by Ruy Teixeira and William Frey that delved into the demographic trends that underlie our changing electorate. I'm still sifting the massive amount of data they presented, but here are a few preliminary observations. The dog and pony show consisted of Frey's accounts of demographic change in various states, where populations are growing and declining, and what kinds of people cause that growth. Then Teixeira steps in to explain what political behavior is displayed by these changing groups. Here are some initial impressions of their results:
- The project was funded by Brookings' Metropolitan Program, and no surprise, metropolitan areas are hugely important! Considering a number of swing states, including Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Colorado, the authors concluded that heavy population growth in metropolitan areas and their suburbs make them critical reserves of voters for Democratic politicians. By superimposing the change in partisan voting margin from 1988 until 2004 over maps showing population growth, the authors were able to suggest a correlation between the fastest growing counties and the more Democratic voters. This demographic shift promises returns for the Democratic pary.
- For one example, check out their discussion of Ohio and the mid-west. You can see rapid growth in the Cleveland suburbs, in Columbus and its suburbs, and in the Cincinnati metro area, while other areas have slower or negative growth. Then, take a look at the change in presidential party voting: In all the growth areas, the Democratic margin has been increasing, often by more than 10 percent, since 1988.
- The newest Mark Penn-esque voter demographic to pay attention to is whites with some college, one of the fastest growing segments of the electorate. It's a volatile group but also has been trending Democratic. White working class voters and white college educated voters are both moving in the Democratic direction this year in comparison to 2004. White college educated voters are starting to supplant white working class voters as an increasing number of people have access to some higher education.
- In some states, especially in the intermountain West, Florida and Virginia, minorities are an increasingly important part of the Democratic electoral coalition. In Colorado, for instance, the largest growth is in white college graduates, many of them from California and other classically blue states, and Hispanic-dominated minorities. Minorities have had a greater increase in vote share than any other bloc (17 percent from 2000 - 2006, with the largest rates of increase in Denver and its suburbs). If Democrats continue to capture a large share of Hispanic voters, this trend -- here as well as in New Mexico, where Hispanic-dominated minorities make up 50 percent of the voter share -- will have a powerful electoral impact going forward.
The two authors noted that the future of this coalition depends on winning Democrats' success at governing -- if they are elected and don't respond with effective policies, then no number of sympathetic demographic groups will help them. But slog through the whole report -- there's a lot going on out in that country of ours. As I find new interesting nuggets, I'll bring them to your attention.
-- Tim Fernholz
