Bob Somerby does an excellent job with a point I've been meaning to make about this NYT story, which speculates why public attitudes have turned against abortion. But the basis for the story (which, given the stability of public opinion about abortion since the early 1970s would be quite remarkable) is ... just one poll. So why should we think it isn't an outlier? The story contains this passage:
Polls conducted by some other organizations within the last few months have found opinion on abortion to be more stable. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll in June, for example, 55 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 43 percent said it should be illegal in all or most cases — close to the average in their polls since 1995.
Times/CBS News polls have also found essentially no change in Americans' overall views of abortion. In a Times/CBS News poll in June (which asked a differently worded question than the Pew or ABC/Post polls did), 36 percent said abortion should be generally available; 41 percent said it should be available but under stricter limits than it is now; and 21 percent said it should not be permitted — close to the average in New York Times or CBS News polls dating back 20 years.
The inconsistency between polls makes it hard to draw a firm conclusion about whether attitudes are shifting.
Of course, at this point the story should be over. What's the point of speculating about a "trend" when the overwhelming bulk of the evidence suggests that no such trend exists? And what's worse is that we just went through this -- a single Gallup poll seemed to show increasing support for the "pro-life" position and was therefore widely trumpeted, but the trend failed to hold up in the company's next poll. But, for whatever reason, the media always seems to be on the lookout for evidence that fewer people support a woman's right to choose, and in this case even a reporter who seems to know that the stories are bogus writes the story anyway.
--Scott Lemieux
