Democratic Pickup Opportunities In Colorado, where Republican Senator Wayne Allard is retiring, Democrats have a golden opportunity to capture a seat in a state that has been trending Democratic for years�But there are also many opportunities to defeat Republican incumbents�John Sununu (NH), Susan Collins (ME), Gordon Smith (OR), and Norm Coleman (MN) have all continued to carry water for George Bush against the will of their constituents.They are all vulnerable and the DSCC is working actively in each of those states to field competitive Democratic challengers...OK, so the Dems� top five pickup targets are all outside the South, but they will be defending two of their three Republican challenges in the South. I just wrote last week about how Louisiana is becoming a post-Katrina disaster for state Democrats. If 2008 is a strong cycle (though surely not as strong as2006) for Democrats, I bet they lose one net seat in the South (likely Landrieu�s), and gain three net seats outside the South (CO, ME and one other -- perhaps two if New Mexico�s Pete Domenici retires.)Where Republicans Will Attack �Republicans have already made it abundantly clear that they will try to defeat Democratic incumbents in primarily red and southern states. Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA), Sen. Max Baucus (MT) and Sen. Mark Pryor (AR) will all undoubtedly be the target of ruthless Republican attacks.�
With the Democrats already at 46 non-southern senators (if VT�s Bernie Sanders and CT�s Joe Lieberman are counted among them) out of 51, and Republicans defending 21 seats overall to just 12 for the Democrats, the Democrats can fairly be expected to gain 3-4 seats. That means that by January 2009 they could have 49 non-southern senators out of 53. (People like former DNC chairman Don Fowler will, of course, still scream at me about how those four southern senators are essential.)The non-southern strategy is happening, right before our very eyes. People may not like to call it that, or speak about it publicly. But it is what it is.
--Tom Schaller
