MORE ON THE EFP.

MORE ON THE EFP. David at Danger Room has a couple very good posts on the possible origins of the EFPs being found in Iraq. He points out, as Andrew Cockburn noted last week, that the construction of these devices is easily within the means of any Iraqi insurgent with access to a machine shop. David also points out that the case that the military is trying to make regarding these parts is simply incoherent. The fact that Hezbollah has used devices similar to the ones found in Iraq does not prove, or even really suggest, that the parts are being shipped from Iran. At best, it implies that collaboration between Hezbollah and Iraqi insurgents (or between Iraqi insurgents and Iranian go-betweens) has led to similar tactics in Iraq and Lebanon. Note this non-response:

Could copper discs be manufactured with the required precision in Iraq? �You can never be certain,� Major Weber said. But he said that �having studied all these groups, I�ve only seen E.F.P.�s used in two areas of the world: The Levant and here,� meaning in Hezbollah areas of Lebanon and in Iraq. Hezbollah is thought to be armed and trained by Iran.

Which is, essentially, a way of saying that the Army hasn't the faintest idea where the EFPs have come from. The distinction between Iranian facilitated techniques and direct support is hardly trivial. Even if Iran supplied the know-how or enabled its transfer, the genie is out of the bottle. If Shiite (and presumably Sunni) militias in Iraq can figure out how to make the EFP disks, then closing off the Iran-Iraq border or even bombing Iran back to the Stone Age wouldn't make a whit of difference for Iraq. I suspect that Iran probably did have some role, if only through facilitating contact and the transfer of information between insurgent groups, but that's hardly important now.

--Robert Farley