The Israeli prime minister today said he was prepared to free "many" Palestinian prisoners in return for the release of Cpl Gilad Shalit, the soldier captured by Palestinian militants in June.I think this signals a real shift in Olmert, who came to power promising to continue Ariel Sharon's policy of unilateral disengagement and hanging on to large chunks of the West Bank. If Hamas at least allows Abbas room to respond positively, the logical end to the conflict -- a two-state solution based on the 1967 borders with land swaps to accommodate major Israeli settlement blocks -- will be slightly closer after several years of violence and intransigence. But it will take a lot more focus, conviction, and patient attention to minute but crucial details than the Bush administration has shown in this area to date. As for Hamas, its exiled political leader Khalid Meshaal recently signaled willingness to look at a peace deal, while threatening to start the third intifada if nothing happens.Speaking on the second day of a fragile ceasefire, Ehud Olmert said that he was willing to dismantle Israeli settlements in the West Bank in exchange for "real peace".
"I hold out my hand in peace to our Palestinian neighbours in the hope that it won't be returned empty," he said.
"We cannot change the past and we will not be able to bring back the victims on both sides of the borders. All that we can do today is stop additional tragedies."
He also offered to ease travel restrictions on Palestinians and free up frozen funds if violence against Israel ended.
Behind this movement, I think, is the recognition in Washington and Damascus (where Hamas' exile wing is based) that it's in neither party's interest to have the region destroy itself in a frenzy of ethno-sectarian violence. It's a recognition that may have been aided by James Baker's September meeting with the Syrian foreign minister and the steady drip-drip of stories paving the way for U.S. talks with Syria (and Iran). A more cynical view, based on a tea-leaf reading of Philip Zelikow's speech in September at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is that the Bush administration wants some token movement on the Israeli-Palestinian front in order to line up Sunni Arab regimes in favor of strong action against Iran.
--Blake Hounshell
