And I endorse this op-ed. Of course, it's also written by the guy who signs my checks, but still -- Harold's perspective on Obama is damn smart. The one thing you can't underestimate, though, is the political potency of his connection with the African-American community. One reason candidates of the intellectual class have been failures in the primaries is that they got buried in the African-American vote, which went heavily for the establishment Democrat. Obama blunts that traditional disadvantage, which may prove important.
All that said, Obama currently trails in every primary state. He's a terrifically strong runner-up, but he needs to actually look likely to win somewhere to maintain momentum. New Hampshire strikes me as his best bet, given their traditional affection for reform-minded folk, but for now, his path to the nomination looks much less clear than his path to a really strong second-place for the nomination. I don't know how exactly he syncs his national appeal with the idiosyncratic demands of the early states, but he's going to have to figure it out.
Also, it's early, etc.
Update: Whoops, David Mizner points out that some polls have Obama ahead in South Carolina. That i didn't know. I still think he needs one of the first two, but strength in SC is important.
