By Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
Over the last two years, Bush's job approval has dropped 12 points, from 51-49 to roughly 63-37. But that change hasn't occured uniformly across the country. With an eye towards the 2008 elections, I took a look at the change in net Democratic performance at the state level, comparing the 2004 election results to the most recent Bush job approval numbers. In general, there's very little good news here—no swing state won by Bush is shiffting dramatically towards—but there's not much bad news either—the Kerry swing states have for the most part held steady. This means that Dems will have to hope that the country has soured on Republicans as a whole, and will be unable to count on any regional disgust with the GOP to propel them to victory.
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