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In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak suddenly released one of the country's most popular opposition politicians, Ayman Nour, from jail Wednesday. Nour's al Ghad party represented one of the more influential secular liberal voices in Egyptian politics, and Nour himself won 12 percent of the vote against Mubarak in the 2005 presidential race before being thrown in jail on trumped up charges. The U.S. and Europe have pressured Mubarak for Nour's release ineffectually for some time; why does he act now? The Arabist has a compelling theory....
It is a clear message that says, “look: Bush tried for four years to pressure me. But I do things on my own timing and any pressure is counterproductive.” The message is, before Obama and his administration settle into a clear approach on Egypt (I don’t think the NSC staffer on Egypt has even been appointed yet), that if the same US approach to Egypt continues, it will only generate headaches. It was necessary to release Nour to improve the bilateral relationship, since ... over the last two years Congress has put unprecedented (even if still relatively mild) pressure on Egypt by withholding $100 million in military aid (but giving Condoleeza Rice the right to waiver the withholding, which she did twice). Now Congress will not have Ayman Nour to rally support around this, and the cautious State and DoD approach to the Egyptian relationship (which is very strong in military, intelligence, and a few issues aside diplomatic terms) could very well prevail - especially as we’re seeing a new Egyptian crackdown on the tunnels to Gaza, the other big issue for Congress.... Obama staffers have a token sign of progress they can point to, and a lesson that the Bush approach failed. Congress has what it wants. Ayman Nour, under Egyptian law, is now no longer able to run for public office as he has a criminal record. The Ghad party has been torn in half and will take time to rebuild. The legislative and political environment is much worse than it was when Nour first emerged as a national figure in 2004-2005, and repression is taking place much more brutally and systematically. So, most probably, we will see US pressure on democratic reform die down, since policymakers will find it difficult to get support for another direct confrontation with the Egyptian regime. They will wait and see what happens after succession.That sounds right. Even as Obama's administration is catalyzing change in some foreign policy areas by sheer dint of its difference from the Bush administration and its willingness to shift the debate, there are going to be countries that try and take advantage of the moment to make superficial concessions that don't actually change the situation on the ground. The release of Nour, while certainly a very good thing, does not represent an improvement for Egypt's democratic institutions or for the opposition's chances of pressuring the regime into making any reformist moves. But it will be very easy for the new administration to take the release at face value and gain breathing space to focus on other pressing foreign policy issues; that, ultimately, would be a mistake.
-- Tim Fernholz
