The Great Game was what they used to call geopolitical intrigue in the Hindu Kush, and once again it returns to the news. Reports confirm that Pakistan's military intelligence agency, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was involved in bombing the Indian Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, killing 54. People in the know saw this coming, and the great books about U.S. involvement in the region establish the ISI as a notoriously problematic, semi-sovereign player.
ISI's decision to bring the simmering India-Pakistan conflict in Afghanistan into the open reflects the serious instability in Pakistan's government, and presents the U.S. with difficult decisions about how much to trust in their partnership. It certainly raises questions about this F-16 deal, and the two presidential candidates differing views on targeted strikes against terrorist leaders in Pakistan without permission of the central government.
On a similar note, Brian Katulis released a smart brief on Pakistan yesterday that discusses how Pakistan and U.S. are not working together effectively to stop terrorists; the CIA chief in Islamabad says he has fewer officers than the Rome Station, and both adminstrations are focused on convention military might. But Katulis highlights a RAND paper [PDF] that points out " since 1968, most terrorist groups ended operations because they joined the political process (43 percent) or local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members (40 percent)." (John Kerry was right!) But in terms of dealing with Pakistan, it's far past time for much more skepticism about the strength of their government -- with Al Qaeda camping out in its essentially lawless provinces and the country's intelligence agency conspiring to blow up third-country embassies, it is becoming a haven for terrorism.
The only good news? A chance to hear from Britain's Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, whose name alone reassures me that the U.S-U.K. special relationship will save us all.
--Tim Fernholz
