After five months of trying, the Bush operation has yet to convince voters that Kerry is an unacceptable replacement for Bus. The flip-flopper thing worked some, but not well enough. And the “Massachusetts liberal” slur may not carry the sting it once did. Add to that the fact that the Kerry Democrats conducted their Boston love-in in a way that made them seem not only happy, but competent, too.
So watch August turn into a brawl full of fury.
“We are up against the most liberal Democratic ticket in 20 years,” says Bush-Cheney spokesman Terry Holt.
“It is going to be an unusually contested month,” promises Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill in an interview with The New York Times.
Yes, unusually contested the same way that Stalingrad was in August 1942. The latest Bush campaign ad, called “Together,” begins to lay out Bush's record, focusing on what the country has been through together since September 11. It is not Bush's record, however, but Kerry's that will be the focus of the Bush August assault.
With more than $60 million in the bank and about 6,000 of Kerry's Senate votes to work with, they have options. Kerry, now the official nominee, can no longer raise and spend money and can only spend the $74.7 million in federal money awarded to each campaign for the fall general election contest.
The GOP message shop is peddling a line that all those votes add up to a whole lot of nothing: Not only is Kerry a Massachusetts liberal who has flip-flopped on every issue, the thinking goes, but he's really done nothing of note in his 20 years in the Senate. It's a charge Kerry will have to answer, but it's a risky strategy for Bush. Setting aside the fact that he was president on 9-11, he is not a sure winner in a “signature achievements” derby against Kerry. Admittedly, in a time of war, being president on 9/11 is no insignificant credential.
Democratic strategists these days says they are pretty happy about how Kerry has held up so far in the terror and national security debate. But they are bracing for the culture assaults to come --- the debates about gay marriage, abortion, and guns.
“If he survives the cultural attack, he'll be okay,” says Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, vice president at Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research.
The constitutional ban on gay marriage approved overwhelmingly this week by Missouri voters could be the beginning of the skirmishes on the culture front. Speaking before the Knights of Columbus in Dallas this week, Bush offered a preview on how he intends to wage that campaign:
See, you're -- the Knights are soldiers in the armies of compassion. You're foot soldiers. You've heard the call. You're helping this nation build a culture of life in which the sick are comforted, the aged are honored, the immigrant is welcomed, and the weak and vulnerable are never overlooked. You have a friend in this administration. You have somebody who wants to work with you to change America for the better.Even though Kerry is Catholic, this is fertile ground for the president. Bush, who has always been popular with devout Catholics, has recently increased his lead over Kerry among those voters, according to recent Democratic polls. Bush enjoys a 16-point advantage over Kerry among devout Catholics, an eight-point jump from earlier in the year. And even among the solidly Republican evangelicals, Bush's lead is increasing. In June, Bush led Kerry by 72 points (85-13) among evangelicals, an increase of 8 points from the start of the year.
Having found themselves on the wrong side of the cultural debate so often in 30 years, this is where Democrats begin to worry -- but they are counting on Bush's declining popularity among even some key constituencies to help blunt that attack.
Among young white voters under 30, Kerry has closed a 16-point gap to lead Bush by one point, 49-48 percent. Much of the shift is the result of a growing antipathy about the war in Iraq, which is making it harder for Bush to talk about other things like abortion and gay marriage.
“Kerry may survive the cultural attack, because people may just not want to hear it right now,” says Greenberg.
In August, they will, anyway!
Terence Samuel is the chief congressional correspondent for U.S. News & World Report. His column about politics appears each week in the online edition of The American Prospect.
