Paul Waldman amasses some useful evidence showing that when Republicans win elections, the media falls all over itself to mark the dawn of a new conservative era. When Democrats look near to winning an election, the media soberly explains that this is a center-right nation and no one should get their hopes up. In 2004, for instance, the Times wrote that "[I]t is impossible to read President Bush's re-election with larger Republican majorities in both houses of Congress as anything other than the clearest confirmation yet that this is a center-right country -- divided yes, but with an undisputed majority united behind his leadership." Yeah. That worked out. What's interesting about the center-right meme is how incredibly unspecific it is. Center-right on what? In 2004, Bush won atop the fear of terrorism. It was the age of orange alerts and ads featuring wolves and mix tapes released by the Bin Laden Cave Conspiracy. But it's hard to look at the last few decades on the domestic side and see anything but a nation trending left. Government has grown. Sharply. Medicare is bigger, as is Social Security, as is Medicaid, as is the federal role in education. Bush's major domestic achievements, in fact, were the increased federalization of education, a massive prescription drug benefit layered atop Medicare, and a campaign finance reform bill. Oh, and tax cuts. But conservatives have only managed to pass tax cuts as a goodie. They've not managed to actually pass tax cuts that shrunk government spending. And that, of course, was the conservative point of tax cuts. It's not like Goldwater;s Conscience of a Conservative had a chapter on "why more federal debt loosens Soviet bowel control." Conversely, we've pretty clearly been center-right on foreign affairs, particularly in the aftermath of 9/11. That may change as the echo of Iraq constrains our international ambitions, but the national security conversation is still focused around war, and is thus inherently Republican (I won't say conservative there). As for cultural conservatism, the politics lean right but the realities prove progressive. This year's Democratic primary featured a woman and an African-American. This year's vice-presidential debate saw the Republican talking about her "gay friends" and pledging a commitment to equality, if not marriage. That's not to say the country is as far left as I'd like it to be, and major new initiatives remain hard to pass. But the idea that recent governance has proven obviously conservative is a little hard to countenance. Domestically, it seems the trend line is center-left: No big advances, but an incremental expansion of the welfare state. And on foreign policy, it seems center-imperialist. And on cultural issues, it seems unhappily tolerant.
