Presuming Kathleen Sebelius is interested in running for Senate, it's far more important that she wins a Kansas Senate seat than serves as Health and Human Services Secretary. Many people could serve profitably at HHS. No one else is likely to win a Kansas Senate election. The question, then, is whether she's more or less likely to win the 2010 Senate election if she first spends a year or two in the administration. In normal times, the answer would be an obvious "no." Stay in Kansas. But these are not normal times. Governors rarely remain popular amidst violent recessions. Tax revenues dry up, their residents need subsidies, and they have to star making painful cuts in order to keep a balanced budget. The stimulus might ease some of that pain, but after Nelson and Collins cut state aid by $40 billion, it's not clear how much aid it will actually offer. Sebelius might be better off closing her tenure on a high note and leaving the fiscal wreckage to a hapless successor (call this The Greenspan Gambit).On the other hand, leaving Kansas just as the times get tough isn't necessarily a wise political move. And serving in the Obama administration might unhelpfully emphasize Sebelius's party affiliation. Kansas is, after all, a Republican state that gave 56 percent of its votes to McCain-Palin. Right now, Sebelius is seen as a Kansas governor first, a Democrat second. If that reverses, she'll be in poor shape to run for Senate. And serving as HHS secretary amidst the coming health reform battle is not exactly an obvious strategy for ducking partisan battles. SHOULD KATHLEEN SEBELIUS MOVE TO WASHINGTON?
Presuming Kathleen Sebelius is interested in running for Senate, it's far more important that she wins a Kansas Senate seat than serves as Health and Human Services Secretary. Many people could serve profitably at HHS. No one else is likely to win a Kansas Senate election. The question, then, is whether she's more or less likely to win the 2010 Senate election if she first spends a year or two in the administration. In normal times, the answer would be an obvious "no." Stay in Kansas. But these are not normal times. Governors rarely remain popular amidst violent recessions. Tax revenues dry up, their residents need subsidies, and they have to star making painful cuts in order to keep a balanced budget. The stimulus might ease some of that pain, but after Nelson and Collins cut state aid by $40 billion, it's not clear how much aid it will actually offer. Sebelius might be better off closing her tenure on a high note and leaving the fiscal wreckage to a hapless successor (call this The Greenspan Gambit).On the other hand, leaving Kansas just as the times get tough isn't necessarily a wise political move. And serving in the Obama administration might unhelpfully emphasize Sebelius's party affiliation. Kansas is, after all, a Republican state that gave 56 percent of its votes to McCain-Palin. Right now, Sebelius is seen as a Kansas governor first, a Democrat second. If that reverses, she'll be in poor shape to run for Senate. And serving as HHS secretary amidst the coming health reform battle is not exactly an obvious strategy for ducking partisan battles. 
