In contrast to Gallup, the tracking poll from the firm Latino Decisions, which specializes in Latino public opinion, offers a different portrait of Democratic fortunes among Latinos:
More importantly, congressional vote intention favors Democrats 57.6% to 18.7%, with 23.6% undecided, a surprisingly high number. These numbers represent about a 6% improvement over the last two waves. If undecided voters break proportionately (or stay home), this would yield a total two-party vote of 75.5% Democratic and 24.5% Republican. This would be a significant victory for Democrats but its importance would be substantially muted if turnout were low. The 23.6% undecided represents votes not won or voters not present, and should be a number of some concern to Democratic strategists.
Finally, Obama’s overall approval among our subjects has risen to 70.8% strongly or somewhat approving of his performance. This represents a 9.4% improvement over the last five waves and is a trend for which the Administration and Democratic candidates may well have use.
The poll suggests recent attempts to pass immigration legislation have worked, at least in the sense of persuading more Latinos that Democrats want to pass immigration legislation. Thirty-five percent of Latinos think Democrats are actually trying to pass legislation, down from a low of 25 in mid-September, while only 9 percent say the same about Republicans.
