As Barack Obama is looking for reasons not to feel bad today, one thing he's probably thinking about is that a number of his predecessors faced something very similar -- steep losses in their first midterms -- yet nevertheless went on to win re-election easily. And what enabled them to do that? The main reason is pretty simple: an improving economy. Politics is obviously complicated, but nothing matters more. Let's look at a picture:
What's really interesting about this is Ronald Reagan. His 1984 campaign was all about how it was "morning in America" -- in other words, you never had it so good. Yet in October of 1984, unemployment was still 7.4 percent, which is pretty darn high (as a point of comparison, it didn't get that high for a single month of Bill Clinton's term). The thing was, that figure was down substantially from its peak of 10.8 percent, where it stood in November and December of 1982 (there are historical data here). So to most people, it felt like things were not just getting better but already better.
Americans certainly don't feel that way right now. Will they in two years? That all depends.
-- Paul Waldman
