MARGINAL McCAIN. What's most interesting to me about the story (or really the additional evidence supporting an old story) that John McCain almost switched parties in 2001 is not so much that he considered it, but why he quickly abandoned the idea: He balked when Sen. James Jeffords left the Republican Party to caucus with the Democrats, switching control of the Senate. It wasn't that McCain had second thoughts on whether he'd be comfortable in the Democratic Party, or that they didn't treat him with respect, or even that the Republicans offered him massive benefits. Rather, it was the fact that, after Jeffords switched, his would not be the switch that gave Democrats control. In other words, if he weren't the marginal member, he wasn't interested in switching. If he couldn't hold the kind of power that Lieberman is claiming now -- the ability to use the threat of switching or switching back -- the whole idea was of no interest. By contrast, I suspect that Jeffords switched entirely for reasons of his own, and if McCain had switched first, Jeffords would have switched anyway. (So the question to Tom Daschle should be, if you thought McCain was serious, why not ask Jeffords to hold off, and lock in McCain first and then get a margin of two?) This has really been the McCain M.O. He's neither a maverick, nor a classic flip-flopper who goes where the wind blows, rather, his consistent pattern has been to maneuveri to put himself in the position where his consent can be the make-or-break factor. As I put it in a column a year ago, "bipartisanship has been a scarce resource, and McCain effectively cornered the market." And since I wrote that, he's done it several more times, notably on the torture bill. It's an astonishing way to exercise power. And he's been joined in the game by Lieberman. But it's a high-wire act, especially when also running for president, and I think Iraq has knocked McCain off his game.
-- Mark Schmitt
