I ran into former Republican National Committee chairman I ran into former Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman today at the Des Moines Marriott. (Believe it or not, he’s here promoting Strong American Schools, a non-partisan education non-profit sponsored by the Gates Foundation, among others.) I asked him what his gut sense of tomorrow’s Republican caucus outcome would be tomorrow, and he pointed out something very simple, obvious yet compelling: the conservative insurgent may do well, even far exceed expectations, but usually finishes second. That is, Ronald Reagan was second to George H.W. Bush in 1980; Pat Roberston was second to Bob Dole in 1988; in 1996, Pat Buchanan finished second to Dole; in 2000, Steve Forbes came in behind winner George W. Bush. By that logic, Mitt Romney holds on to beat Mike Huckabee tonight. --Tom Schaller
