Over at The New Republic, Ryan Lizza has penned a surprisingly convincing case for Obama 08. Normally, starstruck Barack-boosters are shot down on grounds of greenness, insufficient gravitas, and need for seasoning. But to Lizza, that's exactly the point:
The main objection to an Obama run is his obvious lack of experience. He needs at least a full Senate term before he is taken seriously, the argument goes. On the one hand, each day spent in the Senate gives Obama more experience and stature for his inevitable presidential campaign. But each day also brings with it an accumulation of tough votes, the temptations of bad compromises, potentially perilous interactions with lobbyists, and all the other behaviors necessary to operate as a successful senator. At some unknowable date in the future, remaining in the Senate will reach a point of diminishing returns for Obama. The experience gained by being a good senator will start to be outweighed by the staleness acquired by staying in Washington.
There's no way for Obama to know when he will reach this point. That uncertainty makes 2008 look like his best opportunity. He can be certain that 2008 will be a year with a wide open primary on both the Republican and Democratic sides in which neither a sitting president nor vice president will be running, a rare event in presidential politics that lowers the bar of entry for all candidates. He can have a high degree of confidence that if he waits until 2012, he will face the historically impossible task of unseating the incumbent president of his own party, or the historically difficult task of unseating the incumbent president of the opposition party. The 2016 race would probably be his final chance. But by waiting until then he would have to bet that the Senate has not destroyed his career, or, if he has moved to the safer confines of the Illinois governor's mansion--his next chance would be in 2010--that he has not already passed his political peak.
Smart stuff. And I'm largely convinced, which means I've been leading you all astray for the past year. Sorry bout that. But with Obama's star power, fundraising potential, and ability to speak to all wings of the party simultaneously are qualities that make him a helluva candidate now, but may not persist for another decade.
Nevertheless, I think the actual aim of that candidacy should be the Veep slot. Obama's political youth is a valid weakness, even if waiting it out would prove a poor strategy. Becoming VP, though, sets him up for the top slot in either four or eight years, and does so without any allegations of jumping the queue. Now, the way for a newcomer to snag the VP slot is often a presidential candidacy (see Edwards, John), but Obama may be able to leverage his wattage into a surprise pick., That'd probably prove the best of all worlds.
