I just got off the phone with Frank Sharry, the executive director of the pro-immigration reform group America's Voices, who offered the argument for why Obama should prioritize immigration reform. "Conventional wisdom about immigration before the 2006 and 2008 election was that it was an issue Democrats should fear," he said,"it's a culturally-laced political wedge. It's the rebirth of the Southern strategy. But that has failed miserably. It didn't work in 2006. It was tried in the Republican primary where it failed to derail McCain's candidacy, showing that the anti-immigration folks could shut down the Senate switch board but not stop the candidacy of their most hated candidate in their party's primary. Meanwhile, immigrants showed up in big numbers and helped flip four swing states." "Latino voters could be consolidated as a new base for Democrats if they own immigration reform. Our polling suggests that swing voters who want a new path and less partisanship see immigration as the sort of hard issue Washington is afraid of and they very much want someone to take control of it. And republicans are in a tough situation. If they block reform they lose the fastest growing bloc of voters." "Think," said Sharry," of Bush in 2000. Republicans can compete for socially conservative Latinos. They only need 40 percent of them because they win the white vote. It's a simple formula. McCain aimed for 40 percent, but he got 31 percent because of Republican behavior during immigration reform." "If they support reform," however, "they get it off the table." And maybe they need to do that. Or at least let it pass. Sharry's argument suggests that Mitch McConnell should pick five Senate Republicans who won't suffer for supporting immigration and tell them to ensure the bill's success while the rest of the party whips itself into a frenzy of ineffective opposition. If there's any electoral gains to be made from the immediate political backlash, Republicans can take advantage of them. But the issue is off the table politically and the Republican Party can begin trying to reach out to Latinos more systematically. The problem, of course, is that it's not clear that many Democrats would want to go along with the plan and own immigration reform when they go home to their districts. And it's not clear that Republicans can restrain the most demagogic elements of their coalition from turning off Latinos for a generation if given a megaphone and a moment. Related: Why immigration reform won't happen.
