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I'm constantly asked what I think will happen in Iowa. And I'm constantly left offering the oh-so-enlightening response that I have no idea. This does not make me much fun at dinner parties (indeed, it may explain, along with my basically unpleasant disposition, why I get so few invitations to dinner parties), but it's got the virtue of being true. To give you an idea of how tough it is to predict what's up in Iowa, here are three polls, all posted at Political Wire in the past day or so. Poll #1:
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll says Sen. Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney are leading. For Democrats, Clinton leads with 33%, followed by Obama at 31% and Edwards at 22%. For Republicans, Romney leads with 31%, followed by Huckabee at 28%, Thompson at 13% or McCain at 10%.Poll #2:
The final Des Moines Register poll before the Iowa caucuses shows Sen. Barack Obama leading the Democratic presidential race with 32%, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton with 25% and John Edwards with 24%. The survey's margin of error is 3.5%.Key factor: "Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign."Poll #3:
An InsiderAdvantage tracking poll in Iowa shows...Clinton leads with 30%, followed by Edwards at 29%, and Obama at 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4%.Important finding: Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%."Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards 41%, Clinton 34% and Obama 25%."So there you are. The magic of statistical sampling conclusively demonstrates that Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards are all poised to blow away Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards in the Iowa Caucus. It's not even going to be close.
