PREDICTIONS. Kevin is certainly right that the odds are good for a Democratic win in 2008, though it's not due to the magic-8 rule (the presidency tends to switch hands every eight years) he impishly suggests, but rather that the factors contributing to voter unrest -- wage stagnation, Iraq, etc -- aren't likely to go away. Saying Democrats may win is rather different than suggesting the Republican Party is entering some period of total decline. An interesting way to look at this is that at right about the moment the fortunes of the GOP went south, Tom Edsall published Building Red America and Tom Hamburger and Peter Wallsten released One Party Country. Both books were by serious, smart political analysts who were certain that the GOP was constructed an enduring structural lead. Both books were taken seriously even as the right's weaknesses began showing. So it's worth remembering that a surefire read of the political trends can look pretty bad a year later. If, for instance, there's a domestic terror attack, expect a Giuliani presidency to become a whole lot more likwely. --Ezra Klein
