So far, the contested wins are Clinton in New Jersey and Massachusetts. Both looked possible for Obama, but according to MSNBC, she pulled them out. But the closeness matters. A week or so ago, Hillary was leading by dozens in both states. Now she won them in a squeaker, meaning the wins are so close that the delegate differences are trivial. Indeed, odds are Clinton ends the night with more delegates than Obama, but quite a bit fewer than she was expected to win a week or two ago. That's the important metric here: Unlike in a general election, the primaries are not winner-take-all. As Obama trended upward in recent days, there was some talk of a Super Tuesday victory that would knock her campaign back onto its heels. That isn't going to happen tonight, at least barring an upset in California. But he's sticking near to her, and the next couple of states (Virginia, Maryland, etc) favor him, so the basic takeaway looks to be that the primary will roll on, and this remains a game of delegates. Relatedly, I'll be on C-SPAN at about 8:30am Eastern tomorrow morning talking about the election results. Hopefully, we'll have more of them in by then.
