Colorado. Pragmatism triumphed over principle in Tuesday's dual Colorado Senate primaries. As expected, state Attorney General Ken Salazar, a pro-war moderate, easily defeated more liberal educator Mike Miles to win the Democratic nomination. The race on the Republican side was harder-fought. After the surprise retirement of incumbent Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell made the race competitive, the GOP establishment recruited beer magnate Pete Coors to be its standard-bearer in November.
The Coors coronation briefly seemed headed for a derailing at the hands of former Representative Bob Schaeffer, who drew even in the polls with Coors by appealing to social conservatives with attacks on the Coors Brewing Co.'s gay-friendly employment policies and marketing strategy. In the end, though, Coors won (in part by denouncing his company's policies, and getting denounced in turn by Coors Co. advertising), thus forcing Salazar to run against the more moderate, though arguably less competent on the trail, candidate.
Perhaps more important, while the Democratic primary was relatively genial and inexpensive, the GOP battle turned nasty and, for Coors, expensive, leaving Salazar with an advantage in cash on hand and a good position in the polls. The former will likely prove illusory, but it remains to be seen whether a series of Republican unity events scheduled to begin on Wednesday will succeed in shoring up Coors' right flank as he heads into the general election.
Florida. Supported by Emily's List with a $800,000 television buy, Betty Castor, former president of the University of South Florida and state Senate pro tempore, has emerged as the clear front-runner in the Sunshine State's August 31 Democratic primary. Her optimism -- or as her campaign calls it, her "Bettyvision" -- has predictably earned her the devotion of legions of "Bettyheads." In addition, her grass-roots supporters are members of MoveOn.org, which gave her a full endorsement on August 10.
Meanwhile, things will likely get ugly in advance of the GOP primary. Bill McCollum, who narrowly lost a U.S. Senate race to Bill Nelson in 2000, has long been the Republican front-runner. But, Mel Martinez, the former Department of Housing and Urban Development secretary, has picked up some key newspaper endorsements in recent weeks and is closing in on McCollum. Martinez also looks poised to outspend McCollum in television advertising in advance of the August 31 Republican primary, and there is some speculation that an embattled McCollum campaign will feature ads that deride Martinez's past as an, ahem, trial lawyer.
Georgia. First-term Representative Denise Majette coasted through Tuesday's Democratic primary runoff, beating millionaire Cliff Oxford by 18 percentage points thanks to huge margins in urban Georgia. Majette, who ousted the outspoken Cynthia McKinney two years ago in a bitter primary, is Georgia's first black Senate candidate; few outside the Majette campaign, however, expect her to become its first black senator. Although Majette is exceedingly moderate -- she considered running as a Republican two years ago, as reported by the Prospect at the time -- she carries a host of handicaps: Her door-to-door campaign strategy may not transfer well to the general election; her race will be a low priority for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; and, most importantly, she's the Democratic candidate in an increasingly Republican state.
Her opponent, Johnny Isakson, is far better positioned after breezing through the Republican primary in the first round. Senator George Allen, the current junior Georgia senator, has already begun publicly musing about appropriate committee assignments for Isakson. We're not ready to call Zell Miller's seat for the Republican Party quite that quickly -- but we're not placing any bets on Majette, either.
Illinois. Between racist congressional candidate James L. Hart in Tennessee and race-baiting Senate candidate Alan Keyes in Illinois, it's a good time to be a wacko in the Republican Party if you want to run for office. Keyes, the Harold Stassen-like four-time failed candidate from Maryland, was recruited in a last-ditch effort by the Illinois GOP to find somebody -- anybody -- to run against sudden Democratic superstar Barack Obama after Obama's first Republican challenger, wealthy businessman-turned-teacher Jack Ryan, dropped out of the race in a sex scandal and all local Republican politicians declined to run in his stead against the well-funded and popular Obama. But Keyes seems to have had sex on his mind, too -- or at least one of the rarer and most unpleasant outcomes of sex, namely abortion. Having condemned Hillary Clinton in 2000 as a carpetbagger for seeking office in New York, Keyes, who has never lived in Illinois, now says that it was Obama's stance on abortion than drove him into the race. And so he has re-emerged, cicada-like, from his political obscurity to once again create a loud and obnoxious buzz.
Just one day after entering the race, the fiery Keyes has already castigated Obama for taking "the slaveholder's position" on abortion for his opposition to a bill outlawing a rarely used late-term abortion procedure. "I would still be picking cotton if the country's moral principles had not been shaped by the Declaration of Independence," said Keyes -- though perhaps he meant the Emancipation Proclamation, as the Declaration was signed by a fair number of slave-owning farmers -- and criticized Obama for his principles. Obama, who, besides also being black, has done his level best to stay focused in an election season that has seen more than its fair share of scandals and surprises -- his main opponent in the primary was also laid low by a divorce-related scandal -- replied with typical aplomb, saying: "As I travel around this state, I don't get asked about abortion. I get asked 'How can I find a job that allows me to support my family?' I get asked, 'How can I pay those medical bills without going into poverty?'"
The Illinois press is already having a field day with Keyes, whom they are batting around like a big cat with a particularly engaging new mouse. "While we have no doubt that the range of issues Keyes wants to inject into the election -- abortion, gay marriage, school prayer -- are music to the far-right fringe of the Republican Party, the fact is that most Illinois residents...just do not put them high atop the national agenda," wrote the conservative Chicago Sun-Times in an August 10 editorial. "Typical voters may be repelled by some of his rhetoric," added the downstate Daily Southtown, "such as his comparison of moderates in the GOP to AIDS cells in the human body."
Voters seem to agree: In the latest CBS poll of Illinois voters, Obama leads Keyes 67 percent to 28 percent.
North Carolina. Former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles is now leading here over Richard Burr, a five-term Republican representative from Winston-Salem. Everybody expects that lead to narrow rapidly, however, because Burr began campaigning in earnest with a huge name-recognition deficit that will only diminish with time. (Indeed, a mid-July Mason-Dixon poll found a whopping 29 percent of likely voters saying they didn't recognize Burr's name, compared with 9 percent for Bowles.)
The Virginia-based business front group Americans for Job Security first ran ads on Burr's behalf in June, and only last month did Burr's campaign begin to run official spots. Burr, running as the president's candidate, is enjoying hefty support from GOP and corporate political action committees and big help from the White House that cleared the way for his candidacy in the first place: Laura Bush headlined a $1,000-per-plate fund-raiser for Burr on July 30 in Wilmington, and the rest of the Bush team will undoubtedly be paying visits in the coming months. A new round of polling, when it comes, will very likely reflect a whole new race.
Not that Bowles is slacking. During the Democratic national convention, he stayed away from Boston and instead threw himself into a whirlwind 10-day bus tour of his state, stumping at barbecues and fish fries with NASCAR elder statesman Junior Johnson and legendary former Governor Jim Hunt providing backup. All reports indicate that the crowds were bigger and that Bowles' stumping skills more polished than in his 2002 race against Elizabeth Dole. Bowles is running on his bipartisan appeal and his deal-making skills (highlighting, for example, his efforts in pushing for the tobacco buyout plan that recently passed in the Senate) and is keeping his distance somewhat from the Democratic presidential ticket. But John Edwards will no doubt be lending a hand in the coming months, particularly if North Carolina comes more to be seen as in play in the national race.
Pennsylvania. Democratic hopeful Joe Hoeffel had a couple of big wins last week in his attempt to oust veteran Senator Arlen Specter. Hoeffel claimed a victory by taking away two major endorsements from Specter. The Philadelphia Fraternity Order of Police, the largest local police union, and gay rights advocacy group Human Rights Campaign both repositioned themselves into Hoeffel's camp.
Hoeffel is also celebrating third-party candidate and National Constitution Party Chairman James Clymer's entrance into the race. Despite limited name recognition and just $55,000 to spend, Clymer will vie for Specter's conservative base. Clymer is the only anti-abortion candidate, which automatically creates a base of support and he's running as the “consistent conservative” hoping to attract voters who think Specter's too moderate. Clymer submitted 36,000 signatures in order to be placed on the ballot, many of which were garnered by Hoeffel volunteers circulating petitions. Pennsylvanians have a history of supporting third-party candidates, which was especially evident in Tom Ridge's 1994 gubernatorial race where the National Constitution Party pulled 13 percent.
Despite Clymer's jump start at hacking away at the conservative base, Hoeffel still has an uphill challenge. According to a poll released August 4 by WNEP-TV Channel 16 and TV stations in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Hoeffel maintained 34 percent of the vote, which is similar to earlier polling data. Specter posted 49 percent support, with 17 percent undecided or opting for another candidate. However, Specter's numbers plunged 9 points, from 58 percent, in June. In order to win, Hoeffel will have to bring his own numbers up before a third-party candidate will matter.
Compiled by the Prospect staff. Click
here
to read last week's “Purple People Watch.”
