Arizona. There's one word niggling at the minds of Arizona Democrats, and that word is "Nader." At 3 P.M. on Wednesday, June 9, the Nader for President campaign filed 22,056 signatures with the Arizona Secretary of State in order to get the independent candidate and former consumer advocate on the Arizona ballot for November.
The Arizona Democratic Party, newly reinvigorated under the leadership of real estate developer Jim Pederson, who has led the party since 2001 and helped a Democratic governor win in the Republican-leaning state in 2002, plans to challenge the signatures, says one party insider, and to do so much more aggressively than was done in 2000. "We have become increasingly suspicious of the way the signatures have been gathered," says a state Democratic operative, "based on what we believe were Republican contributions to the signature gathering which could amount to an illegal campaign contribution if not reported. We are suspicious of how many of these were gathered by paid signature gatherers."
The majority of the signatures, according to published reports, were stamped "PAID CIRCULATOR," and local Democrats charge that Arizona Republicans are behind Nader's signature effort. State Democratic Chairman Pederson told the Arizona Republic that his party has found "mounting evidence" that Republican consultant and former Arizona Republican Party executive director Nathan Sproul "is the primary source of money" paying for Nader's petition gatherers. "Over the last several days, we have received information that strongly suggests a coordinated, highly funded secret effort by the Bush campaign, Christian right, and others (to put Nader on the ballot)," said a statement released by the Democrats. Sproul denied the charges.
Nader only had to file 14,694 signatures, but in Arizona about one-third of signatures are typically invalidated and so signature gatherers usually find extra signatories just to be safe. As an independent, Nader could collect signatures from voters of any party affiliation, including Republicans and independents who support President Bush and want Nader on the ballot in order to undermine Kerry. Polls show Nader drawing up to seven percent of the vote in Arizona -- enough to cost Kerry the state and, possibly, the election -- but they also show him drawing support largely from Arizona's substantial independent voting population and from Democrats, rather than from Republicans. "Democrats are quite united, but unfortunately there are not enough Democrats to win," says the Democratic operative. Close to a quarter of the state as registered as independent, while 36 percent are Democrats and 41 percent Republicans.
Arkansas. Although President Bush's ratings are wobbling throughout the country, they seem to have stabilized here. In May, Rasmussen found Bush and Kerry tied at 45% each. But in the most recent poll, released on Monday, Kerry had dropped to 43% while Bush had climbed to 48%. Bush won Arkansas by 5% in 2000. Meanwhile, Roll Call reports that among the Kerry campaign's new state directors are four African Americans, including Rodney Shelton, who worked for President Clinton.
Florida. Last week, the Kerry campaign decided to take an innovative new strategy in the Sunshine State: advocating a sensible Cuba policy. In a June 5 statement, Kerry struck a tone of condemnation toward the Castro government, but indicated that he would be more interested in pragmatic efforts to bring democracy to Cuba and improve the lives of the Cuban people than in hard-line posturing. Specifically, Kerry proposed reversing Bush administration decisions that have cut off cash remittances and family travel to Cuba, arguing that such steps do little to damage the regime, and much to burden Cubans and Cuban-Americans alike.
From a political point of view, the gambit here is to simply concede the right-wing exile vote to Bush, while hoping that a more flexible approach will appeal to a younger generation of Cuban-Americans, tired of their parents' and grandparents' decades-long inability to bring about results.
Meanwhile, Jeb Bush is moving forward with another round of pre-election "purging" of the voter rolls, allegedly to ensure that no former felons get a chance to vote in 2004. Since the 2000 purge involved mistakenly removing people from the list, many of whom have not yet had their voting rights restored. Many Florida Democrats are a bit... suspicious. CNN, Sen. Bill Nelson, and local media organizations are suing in federal court for the right to take a look.
Michigan. Up until last Friday, John Kerry had Michigan Dems worried. May had come and gone -- May of an election year -- and the Kerry campaign still hadn't named a Michigan state director. Former Gov. James Blanchard, a member of Kerry's Michigan campaign, publicly expressed concern that Kerry was losing valuable time needed to woo voters in this important swing state. And his concerns were justified: While Michigan, with its 17 electoral votes, has gone Democratic in the last three presidential elections, its blue-collar base could easily turn red this November. Last Friday, the Kerry camp finally announced that Donnie Fowler, a veteran of Al Gore's, Wesley Clark's, and Dick Gephardt's (failed) presidential bids, would be taking over the helm in the Wolverine State. Phew.
Looking at the latest Michigan poll, Blanchard et al. can breathe another collective sigh of relief: A May poll, released last Tuesday by EPIC/MRA, shows 47 percent of 600 likely Michigan voters choosing Kerry, 45 percent choosing Bush, and eight percent still undecided. But while the candidates are locked in a statistical dead heat, Bush seems to be losing the battle with his own approval ratings. In a March poll, 50 percent gave Bush a positive job rating, against a 43 percent negative rating; now, only 45 percent approve of Bush's performance and 55 percent disapprove.
It's too early to tell whether a campaign with a campaign manager will help Kerry begin to tip the scale leftward, but Kerry may have started to blaze a trail into Michigan's Bush country last Sunday. Addressing a 5,400-person crowd at Bedford High School's graduation ceremony, Kerry urged students to serve their country and eulogized former President Ronald Reagan. The Detroit Free Press reported that while many were cool to the idea of the Democratic presidential candidate's address before the ceremony, most left impressed. “I might have spoken too soon,” said Jim Lindsey, a parent who originally opposed Kerry's visit. “I'm just a George Bush supporter through and through. But I think he did a great speech,” the Free Press reported.
New Mexico. The Kerry campaign and its allies have stepped up their Latino outreach, an effort that is expected to be a major factor in the outcome in New Mexico. The New Democrat Network has been running Spanish-language ads in four states, including New Mexico, since last December; at the end of May, the Kerry campaign added a spot of its own featuring Hispanic veterans, its first Spanish-language ad since the primaries. The president, meanwhile, has attacked Kerry on taxes and education in its most recent Spanish ads. With the Bush camp working to preserve the 35 percent share of the nationwide Latino vote that it won in the 2000 election -- and Kerry hoping to knock that below 30 percent -- these media campaigns are expected to have a significant impact on a state Gore won by just 365 votes.
And while New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson seems to have dropped out of the VP discussion, he certainly has not lowered his profile. At the same time Richardson has been preparing to chair the Democratic convention in July, he has been acting as one of Kerry's most prominent surrogates and assisting his own year-old 527, Moving America Forward, in its Hispanic and Native-American registration drive. While Richardson is the only prominent Kerry ally to appear repeatedly in New Mexico, he predicts that “an extensive surrogate program” will start up in the near future. With Ed Gillespie, Marc Racicot, Rod Paige, Dick Cheney, Laura Bush, and both George Bushes each having stopped through the state once or twice apiece in recent months, Richardson will surely appreciate the backup.
Washington. President Bush will resume his campaigning next week with a trip to Washington, his first visit to the Evergreen State since August 2003. Bush failed to capture the state's 11 electoral votes in 2000; Al Gore narrowly bested him by about five percentage points there. In a case of electoral déjà vu, the Pacific Northwest is up for grabs again this year: According to KING/KHQ-TV poll released on June 4, John Kerry currently leads Bush in Washington -- but only barely.
Bush's official purpose next week will be to campaign for Republican Senate hopeful Rep. George Nethercutt. The candidate is waging an uphill battle against two-term Democratic incumbent Patti Murray. Nethercutt, who ousted then-U.S. House Speaker Tom Foley in 1994, is giving up his House seat to run. He might be feeling a tinge of regret for that move this week: The same June 4 poll showed Murray leading Nethercutt 49 percent to 34 percent. Bush's star power might burn brightly enough to boost Nethercutt's standing for a week or two, but no amount of presidential prestige can overcome 15 percentage points. A House seat has probably never looked so good to George Nethercutt.
Compiled by the Prospect staff. Click here to read last week's Purple People Watch.
