Maine. Pseudo–swing state Maine tried to avenge itself against those of us who've mocked its battleground status by turning in a tied Bush-Kerry result in a June 30 Strategic Marketing Services (SMS) poll. Upon further examination, though, there may be nothing to worry about. Undecided voters typically break in favor of the challenger, and the SMS poll had a lot of undecided voters -- 29 percent of the total electorate. When leaners were asked to state a preference, John Kerry opened up a 2.5 percent lead, with eleven percent remaining undecided.
The electorate's underlying attitudes continue to point toward a Kerry win. 52 percent of Mainers feel their economy is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 31.5 who think it's on the right track. George W. Bush's handling of the Iraq situation is viewed unfavorably by a margin of 51.5 to 47, and the number of Mainers who believe the war was a mistake slightly exceeds the number of those who still feel that it was a good idea.
Interestingly, Bush's narrowing of Kerry's lead has come entirely by tearing the opposition down. Whereas the previous poll showed 51 percent of Mainers favoring the Democrats, the newest SMS survey has his support down to just 35.5 percent. Bush, however, hasn't gained at all -- he's dropped from 38 percent to 35.5 percent. Local observers attribute the fall in Kerry's numbers to his being outspent on television ads since the previous survey. For the next two weeks, though, the Kerry campaign will have more cash on hand than it knows how to spend, which should help him retake the lead.
Missouri. A Wall Street Journal "Battleground States Poll" shows Bush with 48.6 percent and John Kerry with 47.9 percent in Missouri -- a dead heat. So it's not surprising to hear that Kerry has ponied up $4.1 million for ads here since January 2004 -- or that pro-Kerry groups have spent another $3 million, according to The White House Bulletin, in an effort to win every vote they can. Meanwhile, MoveOn.org organizers were out in full force after Fahrenheit 9/11 was released here, according to Staci D. Kramer of The Christian Science Monitor, trying to convince anyone who saw the movie (and liked it) that they should help round up more votes for Kerry.
Finally, the Edwards announcement is good news for Missouri Democrats. As Jo Mannies of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out, although Edwards was trounced in the presidential primary in Missouri (losing two to one), the majority of the votes he did get here -- a good 70 percent -- were in rural areas. These are the people who may be willing to vote for a Kerry-Edwards ticket on Nov. 2, tipping the balance in their favor.
Washington. There's not much news from Washington state this week, as much of the country's attention has been focused on John Kerry's long-awaited announcement of John Edwards as his running mate. But this is a good chance to explain a bit about the unique role of the Evergreen State in this year's election. In a nutshell: George W. Bush will try to charge a steep fee for a Kerry win in Washington. The price? Ohio.
On paper, Kerry should have no trouble winning here. Al Gore beat George Bush by 5.6 percentage points, despite Ralph Nader skimming off 4 percent of the state's voters. Washington's governor, both of its senators, and six of its nine congressmen are Democrats. And Seattle, which holds over half the state's population, isn't exactly known for social conservatism. But head east over the Cascade Mountains toward Spokane, and you'll discover another, vastly more conservative side to the state. These folks nominated Pat Robertson in 1988, not George H.W. Bush.
The Bush machine in Washington is working hard to restrain the crazies east of the Cascades by selling the president's record as “not that conservative,” according to Chris Vance, chairman of the state's Republican Party. “There's something there for everyone,” he gushed to The Economist. That includes people from Seattle.
The Kerry campaign will have to stop making battleground-sized ad buys here after the convention so it can devote the big money to states like Ohio and Florida. The Democrats must lock Washington up and check it off the list. But if Chris Vance has anything to do with it, Kerry will be forced to outspend Bush in Washington and then return to Ohio and Florida with less money in the bank.
Wisconsin. Dave Rundell, from the 583-person village of Livingston, could have a profitable second career in punditry. “Farmers need to hear from the Democrats,” Rundell told Madison's Capital Times. “If the Democrats show the farmers that they know we're out here, they can win.” Kerry's schedulers seem to believe the same; prior to selecting John Edwards as his running mate, Kerry spent much of his Independence Day weekend in small-town Wisconsin, visiting a collection of towns that together amount to about 3 percent of the population of Milwaukee. Here, the campaign expects, the battle will be lost or won.
That consideration may have heavily influenced the pick of John Edwards, a son of Small Town, USA, if ever there was one. One of Edwards' greatest strengths is his rapport with small-town and rural residents, as shown by his “Tar Heel Thursday” constituent sessions in North Carolina and his detailed policy proposals geared to benefit family farmers. Edwards performed especially well in the Wisconsin primary, forcing Howard Dean out of the race and boosting his own prospects and reputation. Considering that Al Gore won 40 percent of rural counties in Wisconsin -- compared to just 18 percent nationwide -- without the attention to rural America that Kerry and Edwards seem likely to pay, any efforts they expend will serve them quite well.
Polls, meanwhile, are a promising mixed bag for Kerry. The main Wisconsin tracking poll, a joint project of the University of Wisconsin, the Capital Times, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, has always found George W. Bush leading on the single number that matters -- the head-to-head with John Kerry -- but every other number is against the president. In every survey this year, starting as far back as January, a plurality of voters rated Bush's performance as “poor” on both the economy and Iraq; Bush has lost the presidency to “someone else” by five percentage points or more in three of the last four generic heats.
Compiled by the Prospect staff. Click here to read last week's “Purple People Watch.”
Correction: This article originally misplaced Tacoma, which is south of Seattle.
