Because the news cycle was just too slow...
Okay. Thoughts:
• RIP. Rehnquist was a dedicated public servant, was well-liked by the rest of his Court, and did a great job holding the Court together through troubled times. May he rest in peace.
• This means there are three balls in the air. 1) The Roberts confirmation, with hearings beginning on Tuesday. 2) The nomination of Rehnquist's replacement. 3) The hearings for the next chief. 2 and 3 could potentially be combined if Bush decides to make Roberts or Rehnquist's replacement Chief Justice, but elevating a current member of the Court -- Scalia? -- will mean more hearings.
• My instant read of the nomination landscape is that this makes the appointment of an extremist harder, not easier. Because Roberts is basically sailing towards confirmation, he can be used as "acceptable contrast" with a nutcase. Since Dems are already confirming one nominee, terming them obstructionist would be almost impossible.
• I wouldn't be surprised to see Bush put Roberts up for Chief Justice, simply because he looks confirmable, his paper trail is so short, there are so many more battles to fight, and Roberts is so young. Trying to run one confirmation battle, another confirmation battle, and dealing with a war over the elevation of Scalia or Thomas to Chief would be an almost impossible task.
More as it occurs to me...
• Here's some more: Remember, Rehnquist won't necessarily be a heavily contested nomination because he's already a staunch conservative. If, say, Stevens had died, it'd be a very different matter as a conservative appointment would substantially change the makeup of the Court. So I'm expecting another Roberts-esque nomination -- conservative, but probably acceptable. I also wouldn't be surprised if Bush slips Gonzales in right now. Update: Jeff is hearing exactly that.
• Remember: Bush's poll numbers blow and Katrina is only going to make them worse. His movement is seriously constrained right now. Bush hasn't always seemed to notice when that's the case, but he's in such bad shape that he could actually start losing votes now. If Democrats win on Estate Tax -- and they may well, particularly if they use Katrina to make it an issue -- he's in serious trouble, and won't want a fight on this. He'll want to pick a battle on tax reform, where polls favor his party.
• I've got it! We'll appoint Michael "Brownie" Brown to the Court -- after all, he did one "heck" of a job cleaning up Katrina -- and put someone capable in charge of FEMA! Two birds, one deadly accurate stone.
