That's the premise of my argument over at Greg's place this morning, that using the conservative media as a barometer for what the actual Republican primary electorate really thinks may give a distorted sense of what those voters actually want:
The Republican base has shown itself to be more practical than expected in the past. Despite Senator John McCain’s apostasies — his support for immigration reform, opposition to the Bush tax cuts, and his championing of campaign finance reform — he nevertheless ended up being the Republican standard-bearer in 2008. He wasn’t Rush Limbaugh’s preferred candidate, but when it finally came time to cast a ballot Rush had the same single vote as everyone else.
Maybe Romney is really dead in the water, and maybe Republicans will end up nominating someone based on how well they can echo the more extreme positions of the Republican base. But it may also be that the conservative media — by showering attention on the most outsized conservative figures and the most outlandish statements and positions — has created an exaggerated sense of the GOP base's craziness. I wonder if, as in 2008, there will ultimately prove to be a bigger gap between this distorted image of the GOP base and its actual voting choices in GOP primaries than we all expect.
Jonathan Chait also points out that a recent Pew poll shows half of Republicans want to raise taxes on the rich in order to help close the deficit. But of course, any Republican candidate who actually campaigned on that would face incredible pushback from the party's media gatekeepers. And of course, they actually want to win, and they have to nominate someone credible to do that.
