Electoral forecaster Stu Rothenberg recently updated his “dozen most vulnerable open House seats,” including the first three he deems “likely to go Democratic and…in a class of their own.” Of the remaining nine, all but two are Republican open seats.You can read the whole column, which originally appeared in Roll Call, here, but the following are all 12 seats with some of Rothenberg's descriptions:
- IL-11: Debbie Halvorson (D) “a formidable nominee” in good shape because GOP primary winner dropped out.
- NY-25: Dan Maffei (D) almost beat retiring Jim Walsh (R) in 2006, should have good shot this time.
- VA-11: Tom Davis' (R) finally retires, and “general drift of Washington, D.C.’s Virginia suburbs” favors the Democrats, with primary to come.
- OH-16: Ralph Regula's (R) gone, giving Democratic state senator John Boccieri a solid opening.
- AZ-1: This was a disappointing loss in previous cycles for Democrats, but Rick Renzi's (R) troubles finally caught up with him and he is not running again.
- AL-5: “[R]are Democratic open-seat problem this cycle” because Bud Cramer (D) has retired. Probable GOP pickup, given that “Bush carried it with 60 percent four years ago.”
- NJ-3: Jim Saxton's (R) out, giving “Democrats another target in the Northeast.”
- MN-3: Jim Ramstad's (R) was begged by GOP not to retire, after years of complaining about him as being too liberal. Time for Democrats to make them pay.
- NM-1: Heather Wilson (R) is going for Senate gold, giving three Democrats vying for the nomination a chance to add yet another southwestern seat to Nancy Pelosi's majority.
- OH-15: Deborah Pryce (R) barely held on last time, since retired, and Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy is back for another try.
- OR-5: Only other open Democratic seat, in another seat Bush carried “narrowly in 2004.”
- NJ-7: State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) goes again after losing to retiring Mike Ferguson (R) “by less than 2 points in 2006.” Wildcard is that GOP nominee may be Kate Whitman (R), daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.
Notice that, at least among these top dozen, in the South the possible VA pickup is likely to be cancelled out by the potential AL loss for the Democrats. Meanwhile, in yet further evidence of the Rust Belt Realignment I wrote about last year, you see fully seven of them are in the Northeast or Midwest. Also, there are lots of second-timers running (with more experience, momentum and presumably money, now that the Democrats control Congress), which gives these Democrats a further advantage.
--Tom Schaller
