While the nation scrutinizes Florida to guess the outcome of thepresidential race, somebody had better keep an eye on Auburn,Maine, the home of the Democrats' best chance to take backthe Senate. Although the anticipated fight for control of theHouse of Representatives has fizzled in a wave of incumbentreelections, the normally staid Senate could yet be host to somefast and furious trading of perks and promises as both parties tryto cement a majority.
The new margin in the Senate is a 50-49 split in favor of theRepublicans, with the Washington state race still too close tocall. Even if Democratic challenger Maria Cantwell emerges thevictor from that contest and the Senate divides evenly for thefirst time in over 100 years, most agree that Republicans wouldstill retain control: Either Vice President Cheney would breakthe tie or Connecticut's GOP governor would appoint aRepublican to fill the seat that Vice President Liebermanrelinquished.
But if Democrats were able to lure one or two moderateRepublicans to their side, they could fashion a steady, albeit slim,majority of their own. Relative newcomers Lincoln Chafee ofRhode Island and Susan Collins of Maine are reasonable targets-- Chafee's 100 percent rating with the American Civil LibertiesUnion is unrivaled in the Senate and Collins has proven herindependence by taking on the tobacco industry and pushing forcampaign finance reform.
The real prize, however, is Maine's senior senator, OlympiaSnowe. If Senate Democrats are smart, they are alreadywooing her with all the political plums it will take to get her tosay "I do" to the Democratic Party. It just might work.
Snowe is a sharp, savvy politician with decades of service to theRepublican Party. But in a caucus that swings far right of center,Snowe's views on social and other domestic issues make her atropical plant in an arctic climate.
In a closely divided chamber, pressure from the Republicanleadership to vote the party line will be stronger than ever.Republicans have never given Snowe the prominence shedeserves. If they recognized her talent and appeal, Snowe wouldbe Bush's running mate instead of Cheney -- and we might notbe holding our collective breath over a handful of punch cards,because this election would probably be over.
Given her isolation within the Republican caucus, Snowe willhave to match Strom Thurmond's seniority before the leadershipwill grant her chairmanship of a committee. The Democratscould give her one now. The proudly independent voters ofMaine would be even more likely to forgive Snowe's switch ifshe chaired the Small Business Committee (one on which shealready has plenty of seniority). This would only require theDemocrats to leapfrog John Kerry, who would be too satisfiedwith his new chairmanship of the Intelligence Committee toprotest.
Just a few years ago, Democrats might have reasonably fearedlosing a few of their own in a round of horse-trading. By now,however, all of the likely suspects have either already switched,retired, or been incorporated into the Democratic leadership -- aparticularly shrewd move by Democratic Leader Tom Daschle.
Although it is a morbid topic, the reality is that Republicancontrol of the Senate may rest on the shaky health of 97-year-old Strom Thurmond and ailing Jesse Helms. (Both their stateshave Democratic governors who would appoint Democrats tofill any open Senate seat.) If anything should happen to eitherSenator during the 107th Congress, the balance of power in theSenate would switch mid-Congress for the first time in ourhistory. Snowe could find herself in a Republican minority in ayear or two, or she could help the Democrats secure a firmmajority now.
Finally, regardless of the outcome in the Washington Senaterace, 2000 has been another record year for women in theSenate. Although they are by no means of one mind, the dozenpro-choice women have the potential to be a powerful votingbloc. Female senators have often bemoaned the fact that maleperspectives dominate and shape political debate. They willnow have a better chance to influence the way issues are framedand make that influence more powerfully felt. Snowe could beon the outside of that effort in the Republican Party or on theinside as a Democratic senator.
A few things might affect Snowe's decision. First, if incumbentRepublican Slade Gorton ekes out a win in the WashingtonSenate race, it might take two party-switchers to giveDemocrats control. Second, Snowe's incentives might beaffected by who wins the presidency. President Bush couldreward Republican senators, and President Gore would rewardDemocratic ones. As goes the presidency, so might the Senate.
Democrats have already made overtures to moderateRepublicans including Snowe. The balance of power in onebranch of government depends on their decisions.
