If the point of Israel's attack on Gaza was to weaken Hamas and strengthen Fatah, it's not working. As The New York Times reports today, "The more bombs in Gaza, the more Hamas’s support seems to be growing at the expense of the Palestinian Authority." This isn't just a rally-round-the-martyer effect. Fatah is seen as colluding with Israel to destroy Hamas -- which is probably true. But colluding with the Israelis is not a quick path to popularity in Palestine. The sad outcome of Operation Cast Lead may be that Hamas sees its legitimacy strengthened and its governing capacity degraded. In that scenario, there's more chaos and violence and extremism in Gaza, more for Hamas to gain from violence, and less chance that it enters into a unity government with the perceived quislings in Fatah. Even crazier is the depth of Israel's self-deception: "Israel is proposing, with the tacit agreement of Egypt and the United States, to place the Palestinian Authority at the heart of an ambitious program to rebuild Gaza, administering reconstruction aid and securing Gaza’s borders." That certainly doesn't seem like a plan that will wreck the credibility of Fatah forever. Towards the end of the article, an Israeli defense official says, "Hamas will not let the Palestinian Authority come out of this with an achievement. I don’t know what to say. We’re not there yet.” That sentence where "I don't know what to say" sits is the sentence where an explanation of Israel's strategy should go. The fact that it's occupied by a verbal shrug of the shoulders is further evidence that Israel has no idea what it's still doing in Gaza, or what realistic outcome they favor. Related: Jeet Heer runs through Israel's old strategy of supporting Hamas as a counter to Fatah. "So basically we see a see-saw policy: support Hamas one day to weaken Fatah, support Fatah the next day to weaken Hamas," concludes Heer.
