Iran has been marred by protests and unrest after the results of its recent presidential election were called into doubt. The official results showed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad beating reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi by an extremely wide margin -- a margin experts, including Juan Cole, said was stunningly unrealistic and evidence of fraud. There are others who disagree, such as Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty, who say the results are probably accurate.
The perception of fraud though, may be all that matters.There have been reports of Iranian security forces responding brutally to protests happening all over the country--but the outraged response of the reform movement's supporters seems to be having some effect. Despite having first called the election results "a divine assessment," Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei just ordered an investigation into claims of fraud, indicating some pretty serious unease on the part of Iran's ruling elite. A protest called for by Mousavi for Monday was "postponed" by the authorities. It may sound weird, but even the ruling elite require a certain amount of popular legitimacy, one they may fear they are now at risk of losing. At the same time, all of this may simply lead to a much more hard-line, isolated Iran as the ruling elite crack down even harder out of fear of losing their grip on the country.
The Obama administration has been cautious in speaking out -- likely because anything that could be interpreted as support for the reformers could undermine them by making them look like tools of a foreign power -- remember that the Islamic Revolution was preceded by the overthrow of democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddeq by the CIA and the repressive rule of an American-backed autocrat.
Interestingly, via Andrew Sullivan, one of the spokesman for Mousavi is Iranian filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf, whom I wrote about a while ago on TAPPED in the context of discussing Iran's "national conscience."
-- A. Serwer
