Brian Schaffner at the Center for Congressional and Presidential studies blog provides some needed context regarding that Gallup poll from yesterday which showed that 28 percent of Clinton backers and 19 percent of Obama backers would vote for John McCain if their candidate was not the nominee. Using a similar poll from the 2000 campaign, Schaffner reminds us:
In March of that year, the Pew Center for the People & the Press released a report titled "Bush Pays Price for Primary Victory." Following Bush's victory in the 2000 primaries and McCain's exit from the race, the Pew survey found that 51% of those who backed McCain during the primary campaign would vote for Gore in the general election. Only 44% of his supporters said that they would be casting their votes for Bush. Furthermore, a significant share of Bradley supporters also said that they would be supporting Bush in the general election, including 39% of his independent backers.
I've never really taken seriously the notion that the drawn-out nomination battle would permanently damage either candidate. Rather, the lasting damage, if any, will be on the Democratic Party and its efforts to build a future electoral and governing majority. But as long as the nomination is decided before the convention, there should be adequate time to make that happen.
--Mori Dinauer
