Posted Nicholas Beaudrot of Electoral Math
Before we lionize Mark Warner for dragging Tim Kaine over the finish line, bringing an out-and-out liberal Democrat within thirty thousand votes of the Lieutenant governor's seat, destablizing the Republican coalition in Washington, rallying the stock market, turning water into wine, rescuing Katie Holmes from the clutches of scientology, and all manner of other minor miracles, I'd like to throw a bit of cold water on Kaine's win. I promise a more exhaustive analysis later this weekend.
For now, suffice it to say Warner's 2001 victory represented a significant realignment of the state of Virginia. He won slim majorities in a few rural counties in Southwest Virginia, cut the usual GOP margin of victory in others, and piled up modest wins in the usual Democratic enclaves like Fairfax, Arlington, Richmond, and Alexandria. This year, Kaine won by piling up horse-whipping majorities in places like Fairfax, held on to some of Southwest VA with smaller margins than Warner, but lost several counties that Warner carried in the previous election.
A permanent Democratic majority in Virginia will require both Kaine's higher margins in suburbia and Mark Warner's success in the Shenandoah Valley and the rest of the rural areas of the state. Kaine will have to continue to work hard to maintain Democratic popularity in Southwest Virginia to prevent further losses in future elections.
