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- Josh Patashnik tries to make the case that Survey USA will look worse after we see which of the dueling polls is closer to being right in California, and makes some good points. I have no idea if he will turn out to be right , but I do think that his analysis makes clear that one shouldn't be too hard on the pollsters. The primary particularly emphasizes questions of turnout that are inherently unknowable but are pretty much the whole ballgame. The result will prove that either Zogby of Survey USA can't predict the precise composition of a primary electorate, but that's not about scientific polling per se; getting it wrong means they made a bad prediction not that their polls were wrong per se.
- Marty Lederman makes a good point about the potential effects of a near-deadlock after Super Tuesday. I would like to think that if one candidate goes into the convention with a significant lead that the superdelegates would think enough about their party not to throw the nomination to the other candidate. It's hard to say that it would be "undemocratic" otherwise because the primary process is so arbitrary, but it's still better on balance for the leader going in to be the leader going out.
