THE OTHER WAR.

THE OTHER WAR. There's been lots of coverage about John Abizaid's recent statements to Congress; not so much about the comments of Lt. Gen. Michael D. Maples, Director of the DIA:

In Afghanistan the Taliban-led insurgency, aided by al-Qaida, is incapable of directly threatening the central government and expanding its resilient support networks and areas of influence beyond strongholds in the Pashtun south and east as long as international force levels are sustained at current levels. Nonetheless, DIA judges that, despite having absorbed heavy combat losses in 2006, the insurgency has strengthened its capabilities and influence with its core base of Pashtun communities. Violence this year is likely to be twice as high as the violence level seen in 2005. Insurgents have significantly increased their use of suicide operations. If a sustained international military and Afghan security presence throughout the volatile Pashtun south and east is not established alongside credible civil administrations, central government control over these areas will be substantially restricted. In 2007, insurgents are likely to sustain their use of more visible, aggressive, and lethal tactics in their continued effort to undermine the willingness of the international community to support military and reconstruction operations in Afghanistan and to highlight the weakness of the central government.

That's a pretty bleak picture. Maples added that "without a fundamental, comprehensive change in the permissiveness of the border region, al-Qaida will remain a dangerous threat to security in Afghanistan and to U.S. interests around the globe." Translated from General-speak: Pakistan is not playing ball. There have been periodic grumbles about this out of NATO as well, but so far it doesn't seem like much has changed.The solution is not as simple, however, as just "getting tough" on Pakistan, although it's partly that. As regional expert Barnett Rubin explained to FRONTLINE, the U.S. needs to understand why Pakistan does what it does and help it get out of this trap of fomenting trouble in Afghanistan and Kashmir in order to create "strategic depth." That requires the kind of nimble diplomacy over delicate border and nationalism issues that the Bush administration is manifestly incapable of executing.--Blake Hounshell