Barack Obama isn't going to win much more than Virginia, and maybe Florida, in the South, but you might be surprised to learn that I think Obama should spend money and resources in the region. I do, and this is not a reversal of anything I wrote in Whistling Past Dixie, but in fact a confirmation. How can that be?
Easy: Because now that he has foregone public financing, and is thus expected to have a financial advantage over John McCain and the Republicans, the whole notion of spending money in losing states to "keep honest" one's opponent turns is turned inside out for Obama and the Democrats in 2008. As I explain in the third tactical recommendation in the concluding chapter of the book, it never makes sense for the resource-disadvantaged candidate or party to spend money in no-win states to "keep honest" the opposing party because the resource-advantaged party can spend the same amount -- and, given their other advantages in that state/region, probably less -- and probably suffer no damage electorally.
Indeed, even if the resource-advantaged party plays it conservatively with a dollar-for-dollar match, because they have more resources to begin with and because subtracting equal amounts from both sides of any ratio always widens that ratio (that is, worsens it further for the resource-disadvantaged party) the "keep them honest" actually worsens the resource-disadvantaged party's situation in the swing states. (That is, 99:98 is actually a better ratio for the disadvantaged party than 98:97, which is better than 97:96…and so on. Eventually one reaches 2:1, see?)
However, because Obama and the Democrats should be the resource-advantaged party this cycle (they certainly are in congressional races), they can and should spend money in some states they expect to lose and bleed McCain and the Republicans. If this Politico piece is any indication, that is exactly what David Plouffe and the Obama camp have in mind, putting staff and some money into places like Georgia and Texas and Montana they probably won't win but where they can bleed McCain and help Democrats downballot -- and without jeopardizing Obama's electoral chances. Smart, smart.
--Tom Schaller
