California Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Meg Whitman, who campaigned on wanting to crack down on employers who hire illegal immigrants but is now facing allegations that she knowingly hired an undocumented woman, Nicandra Díaz Santillán to clean her house and watch her kids, is faltering in her campaign for governor, according to Nate Silver:
Jerry Brown is now a 75 percent favorite to become the next governor of California, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecasting model, after accusations circulated widely that his Republican opponent, Meg Whitman, knowingly employed an illegal immigrant as her housekeeper. Last week, Mr. Brown was a 60 percent favorite, and two weeks ago, he was the underdog in the race.
Although several polls released in the past week show Mr. Brown, a Democrat and former governor, with a small lead, it is unclear how much of the change in his standing is attributable to the reports about Ms. Whitman and the housekeeper, Nicandra Díaz Santillán. Ms. Whitman acknowledged hiring Ms. Díaz Santillán, but she says she dismissed her as soon as her immigration status was disclosed. A poll by Rasmussen Reports registered no change in Ms. Whitman's unfavorability rating — 50 percent, unchanged from two weeks earlier — even as it found Mr. Brown gaining ground.
Silver writes that polling Latino voters can be difficult, so it's hard to know how the scandal has affected their views of Whitman. As Nicole Allan points out the above Rasmussen poll showed Latinos favoring Brown over Whitman by 65 to 7 percent, although that margin makes me wonder about the sample size.
