Almost a year ago, President Obama held his first health-care summit, and tomorrow we'll have what is hopefully the final health-care summit. How time flies!
One thing that we've learned in the last year is that reformers could have employed a much better legislative strategy. The original Democratic bills were designed to entice Republicans on board, and they haven't changed too significantly since then: Essentially, they preserve the private health-insurance system while creating near-universal coverage and trying to control costs. Check out this table, which shows how similar the president's bill is to a 1993 Republican proposal. Many have noted the conservative ideas featured in the bill, yet Republicans still won't vote for the bill. They won't even respond to offers for further compromise!
And now today we have a poll that suggests the public wants the Democrats to give up some of their proposals! Why is this? I'd guess it's because the Democrats led with a compromise instead of making a big ask, so there wasn't much to concede. Even now, it's unclear what the Democrats have conceded, especially thanks to the White House's woolly handling of the public-option debate. The public doesn't see how Democrats have conceded anything because the bill they proposed already contained concessions, and Republicans get to complain away. Let that be a lesson in strategy: Ask for the ideal, then pare it down.
Nonetheless, that doesn't mean all is lost now. Polling also suggests that Democrats need to pass this bill to have a fighting chance in the 2010 midterm elections:
The overall takeaway from this look at swing voters? They are a Democratic leaning lot but the party needs to accomplish something in Congress between now and November if they're going to seal the deal. Otherwise they're open to voting Republican, but not if the GOP's candidates are too extreme.
-- Tim Fernholz
