Andrew Gelman

Brendan Nyhan and Jacob Montgomery talk sense here. I am perhaps too influenced by Steven Rosenstone’s 1983 book, Forecasting Presidential Elections, which is the first thing I read on the topic. In any case, I agree with Nyhan and Montgomery that the difference in vote, comparing a centrist candidate to an extreme candidate, is probably […]

You can see my contribution to the discussion here. I discuss the research of Jan Leighley, Jonathan Nagler, and others. Here’s my conclusion: Whether or not mandatory voting is a good idea, I think it’s unlikely to happen at a national level. Even setting aside the practical difficulties of taking a now-voluntary action and making […]

Wow, that Steve Forbes guy is pretty dumb! I wonder how someone this foolish got a column in Forbes magazine???

The story of notorious speed-limit-violater and gambler-with-other-people’s-money Jon Corzine should remind us all of the problem with asymmetrical bets. Corzine’s behavior has been linked to the idea of “too big to fail” (see link above)—-and I agree these can make things worse—-but I think the fundamental problem would arise even in a world without bailouts. […]

I got the following email today from Jordan Gehrke, Campaign Director, AmericansforHermanCain.com Patriot— They’re at it again. Herman Cain is winning the Republican race for President. So the left-wing media has swung into action. Clarence Thomas called it a “high tech lynching” 20 years ago. That’s exactly what they’re doing to Herman Cain today. This […]

Like other political scientists who’ve studied the topic, I think the malign effects of redistricting have been overstated. Nonetheless, this video (by Andrew Bean and David Holmes) is informative, and I agree that nonpartisan redistricting would be better than the current system in the U.S.

See here. The topic is relevant to political science, given that this is a discussion of public spending priorities.

According to Chris Wilson, there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that […]

John gives some reasons why viewers of the political scene might think that congressional Republicans are more disciplined than their Democratic counterparts, even if this isn’t really so. I’d like to give one more big reason based on recent history. When Barack Obama became president, congressional Republicans implemented a solid No strategy and were successful […]

In the Wall Street Journal, of all places! What happened? They couldn’t get John Yoo to write something on short notice?