Larry Bartels

How will opinions on tree height have an effect on November vote tallies?

More on the debate over whether poor whites are trending Republican.

Contrary’s to Mitt’s assertions, the poorest 20 percent have seen the largest change in income in the past few years. 

A new study shows that Republican presidential administrations lead to a significant uptick in violent crime. Why does our political process rely on opinion when the facts are so convincing?

Romney’s “wealth problem” is less about the money, more about the caring.

This post is coauthored with my Vanderbilt colleague Marc Hetherington: The politics of 2011 have been dominated by the fruitless search for a “grand bargain” to rein in the federal budget deficit, primarily by curtailing government spending. Much of the surface appeal of budget-cutting stems from a belief that citizens have become so disenchanted with their government that they […]

Incumbent Party’s Expected Vote Margin = 1.14 −.83 × (Years in Office) +4.51 × (4th-Year Income Growth) +1.66 × (3rd-Year Income Growth) −1.04 × (2nd-Year Income Growth) −2.34 × (1st-Year Income Growth) Most of the ingredients in this recipe for success at the polls are very familiar to students of American presidential elections. The incumbent party […]