Thomas Schaller

As a follow-up to campaign deal-making, here’s a verbatim transcript of a quick one-on-one I had with As a follow-up to campaign deal-making, here’s a verbatim transcript of a quick one-on-one I had with Obama consultant David Axelrod: DA: All I’ll tell you is that we’re after everybody…we want to be everybody’s choice. I don’t […]

…Obama is going to beat Hillary. The Obama people seem very bouyant, the Clintons not. David Axelrod, Obama campaign chair says he stopped trying to figure out if Clinton is doing down-in-the-mouth routine to lower expectations because they think she’s gonna win or because she’s going to lose. “I’m over-spun,” he said. “Let’s just put […]

Had a chance to corner, first, Had a chance to corner, first, Gov. Bill Richardson, and then Sen. Joe Biden, at the Polk County Convention Center, which is ground zero tonight for the caucus results porting. I asked them both about how they felt their campaigns had finished, but also about any deal-making between the […]

Just a stray thought: Just a stray thought: John Edwards has that great line about the Democratic field being an “embarrassment of riches” and the GOP field just plain being an embarrassment. Though bearing no ill will to Republican spouses as people, isn’t that even more true of the major candidates’ wives and a certain […]

Can we glean anything from the late Democratic polls? Maybe we can. Consider that, absent ties, there are but six possible permutations for the order in a three-way race among Can we glean anything from the late Democratic polls? Maybe we can. Consider that, absent ties, there are but six possible permutations for the order […]

It’s still unclear whether there are second-choice directives from other second-tier candidacies beyond that of It’s still unclear whether there are second-choice directives from other second-tier candidacies beyond that of Dennis Kucinich to caucus with Barack Obama, and maybe Obama won’t need such green lights because the caucus-goers will make that decision themselves. (I asked […]

I have new online I have new online piece analyzing the Republican battle tonight here in Iowa. Short version: Whether Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney is victorious, neither will actually win. Potentially, real winner is John McCain. –Tom Schaller

I know it’s unwise to make public predictions, and I also see the I know it’s unwise to make public predictions, and I also see the polls showing both Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee surging, but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Democrat Hillary Clinton might still win this thing […]