PapaBigears

Dan Balz of the Washington Post asked me and a number of others to comment on 8 questions about the current presidential campaign.  His write-up is here, quoting me on the subject of the debates.  Here is what I told Balz in response to several of the other questions. 1. Will the campaign be relentlessly […]

We welcome guest-blogger Brendan Doherty to The Monkey Cage this week.  Brendan is a political scientist at the Naval Academy and the author of the newly published book, The Rise of President’s Permanent Campaign, which is a new and important study of presidential campaign fundraising.  The book is already getting attention—e.g., here and here.  Brendan […]

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy Martin Gilens appears on the Rachel Maddow Show.  Hide your children!  More here.

When it comes to making policy, Mormons take a backseat to no one on conservative ideological purity. We examined the voting records of every Mormon United States senator serving from 1976 through the early years of the 21st century. (The behavior of senators can give us a good approximation of the decisions that a future […]

This is a guest post by my colleague Brandon Bartels. ***** As the issue of forecasting has been on the minds of political scientists and journalists as of late (examples 1 2 3 4), I thought I would weigh in on this issue as it pertains to predictions of the Supreme Court’s ruling on the […]

Featuring Jon Krosnick.

From political scientist Arthur Lupia.

From Gallup.  A similar pattern characterizes feelings toward John Roberts.

Veronika Polakova of the American Enterprise Institute sends along the following analysis: Although the media is now focused on Chief Justice Roberts following his surprising health care vote, long-time Supreme Court watchers know that Justice Kennedy is the Court’s true swing voter. An analysis of the Supreme Court 2010 and 2011 terms sheds new light […]

Adam Berinsky has new data: These polls demonstrate that the public is back where it was before Obama released his long form birth certificate. In April 2011 55% of the public believed that Obama was born in the United States. Today 55% of the public believes that he was born in the United States.